WHEN CARDINAL JORGE Mario Bergoglio appeared on the papal balcony as Francis on March 13, 2013, he joked that in electing a new Pope “it seems that my brother cardinals have gone to the ends of the earth to get one… but here we are!”

Long considered an Italian institution, the Polish Pontiff John Paul II became the first non-Italian Pope in 455 years when he was elected in 1978. It was a trend that continued with Benedict XVI – a German – in 2005, and, of course, the Argentine Francis in 2013.

Francis was a Pope of firsts, the first Jesuit Pope, the first Pope from Latin America and the first Pope from what westerners with a European lens describe as the ‘new world’.

From his earliest pronouncements as Pope, Francis made it clear that he wanted to shift focus away from Europe and concentrate more on the global Church.

At one level, this is because it is this global Church that he is more familiar with. At a deeper level, it is the Church outside of Europe that is growing and continuing to increase attendance.

The reach of the Church

Francis looked to his two immediate predecessors, both of whom expended considerable energy trying to get Europeans to appreciate their deep Christian roots, and saw they were unable to arrest the decline.

Francis believed passionately that it was the existential peripheries – those places far from Europe where Christianity is thriving – that would help Europe to rediscover the Faith.

He also worked hard to rebalance influence in the Church away from Europe so that the Church was more representative of the global membership.

Pope Francis has transformed the College of Cardinals – the elite bloc of Churchmen whose sole right it is to elect a new Pope – adding members from far-flung parts of the world in the hope that they will bring a different perspective, and crucially the perspective of poorer nations.

In 1939, for example, 55% of the cardinals who elected Pius XII were Italian. Today, Italians make up just 20% of those cardinals under 80 who are eligible to vote.

Of the 138 men eligible to elect Francis’ successor at a conclave in the Sistine Chapel, 54 are from Europe, 24 from Asia, 18 each from South America and Africa, 16 from North America, four from Central America and four from Oceania.

Ireland will not have a vote at the conclave since 85-year-old Cardinal Séan Brady lost the right to vote when he turned 80. Neither his successor in Armagh Archbishop Eamon Martin nor the Archbishop of Dublin Dermot Farrell have been given the coveted ‘red hat’ and admitted to the College of Cardinals.

An Irishman has never been elected Pope, and since the group usually chooses a Pope from among its own members, we can say with almost 100% certainty that there will not be an Irish Pope.

However, one influential Irishman to watch is Drimnagh-native Cardinal Kevin Farrell. He holds the position of Camerlengo of the Holy Roman Church and is therefore responsible for organising the papal election and assisting in the running of the Church in the period of vacancy known as sede vacante (the vacant see).

How a new Pope is chosen

Before there is a vacancy in the papacy – either as a result of the Pope dying or a Pope stepping down – it is considered la brutta figura (creating a bad impression) to discuss possible contenders, and canvassing or electioneering is strictly forbidden.

That being said, any Vaticanologist worth his or her weight in salt always has a list of so-called papabili – the men who they think could become Pope.

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What happens during a real-world conclave?

It is a notoriously risky business, and the old saying in Rome is that he who enters a conclave as Pope exits as a cardinal, meaning there’s no guarantee one of the cardinals thought to be a frontrunner will actually be chosen.

Before thinking of a candidate, most cardinals will reflect on the sort of Pope they want. Before his election, Francis had emerged as someone who would prioritise reform. His predecessor, Benedict XVI, had been seen by his confrères as someone who would continue the ministry of John Paul II. So, a Pope in the mould of Francis, or someone radically different?

Age is also likely to feature. A young-ish Pope, as John Paul II was in 1978 aged 58, is likely to have a long pontificate. An older man, like John XXIII who was about to turn 77 in 1959 will have a short pontificate.

Geography will also play an increasingly key role. Many of the cardinals from Asia and Africa feel that the Church in the global south has long since come of age, and they are keen to assert this on the global stage. They are unlikely to throw their weight behind a candidate who is European or North American.

As the success of the hit movie Conclave shows, the most elaborate electoral system in human history – cardinals locked in a chapel letting the world know whether we have a new Pope or not by smoke signals – has lost none of its power to captivate and fascinate.

Michael Kelly is Director of Public Affairs for the papal charity Aid to the Church in Need, Ireland. A former editor of the Irish Catholic, he is an expert on Vatican affairs and has covered papal transitions in 2005 and 2013.