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The full tersm of the tariffs will be anounced tomorrow. Alamy Stock Photo

US tariffs: What will happen on Trump's 'Liberation Day'?

The Irish government is bracing for impact tomorrow, as US tariffs of up to 20% on EU nations have been predicted.

US PRESIDENT DONALD Trump has already launched a volley of tariffs impacting allies and adversaries this year, but tomorrow he is promising a “Liberation Day” that will free the US from a reliance on foreign goods.

This is expected to come in the form of even more tariffs, with the EU squarely in the firing line. 

Ireland is expected to be one of the most affected countries when Trump announces the new round of tariffs – with this country the EU nation that is most reliant on the US export market.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin has already warned that the tariffs “could very well” impact on the Budget later this year, and signalled that the government will try and focus on investment on major infrastructure. 

The exact nature of the announcements is unclear. Even the timing is not confirmed but the speculation is that 9pm tomorrow Irish-time is when people should expect major news. 

But what are we likely to expect and what else is in the pipeline?

Trump tariffs

Trump fired his first salvo in early February, announcing tariffs of up to 25% on goods from Canada and Mexico while demanding they do more to stop illegal immigration and the smuggling of the illicit drug fentanyl.

While he postponed their implementation to March and later provided partial relief to aid the auto industry, the state of these exemptions after tomorrow remains unclear.

China won no such reprieve over the same period. The Trump administration imposed an additional 20% tariff on goods from the world’s second-biggest economy, over its alleged role in supply chains of drugs like fentanyl.

Trump has separately taken aim at key sectors, with 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports taking effect in mid-March. Tariffs on imported autos, meanwhile, kick in on Thursday.

The president has unveiled blanket 25% tariffs on direct and indirect buyers of Venezuelan oil too, which could happen as soon as tomorrow.

Analysts’ expectations

Trump has not detailed the scale of his reciprocal tariffs, aimed at correcting trade imbalances and practices he and his supporters deem unfair.

But these will likely target around 15% of US trading partners, dubbed a “Dirty 15″ by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

Analysts expect the group could be similar to economies mentioned by the US Trade Representative (USTR) in its call for comments to identify unfair trade practices.

Parties on the list which the United States has notable trade deficits with include China, the European Union, Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and Canada.

According to the White House, Trump’s reciprocal duties will consider the tariffs that partners impose on US goods, and other factors like value-added taxes or digital service taxes.

Here in Ireland, government sources have said the EU is operating on the basis that a 20% blanket tariff will be initially applied to all EU countries by the Trump administration.

32% of Ireland’s goods exports go to the US, while 17% of our imports emanate from there.

Analysis co-authored by the Department of Finance and the ESRI has suggested the tariffs could cost Ireland more than €18 billion in lost trade.

There are also fears about US companies based in Ireland being forced to uproot due to the tariffs – fears which were only exacerbated when Trump name-checked pharmaceutical companies in Ireland while speaking in the White House last week.

Trump could unveil further sector-specific tariffs tomorrow, having earlier indicated plans to target pharmaceuticals, semiconductors and lumber.

Retaliation

US trading partners have pushed back on Trump’s measures.

China swiftly imposed counter-levies of 10% and 15% on US agriculture goods like soybeans, while the EU unveiled countermeasures in response to US steel and aluminum tariffs.

The bloc threatened duties to hit some $28 billion of US goods in stages from April, affecting products from bourbon to motorbikes.

But their start has been delayed until mid-April to allow more time for dialogue.

Trump has warned of punishing 200% tariffs on Europe’s wine and spirits sector in the meantime, alarming foreign producers and US businesses.

This could pose a severe threat to Ireland’s whiskey industry.

More recently, major European economies urged for firm action by the bloc over Trump’s auto tariffs.

Canada has struck back with tariffs on around $42bn in US goods, hitting steel products, aluminum and items like computers.

Mexico is waiting until early April to respond comprehensively.

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