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IT’S SEVEN MONTHS out from the presidential election, with political parties very much in assessment mode right now as to who they might put forward.
Over the last number of weeks, there has been a bit more movement and lots more speculation, with a number of people voicing their interest (or not ruling out interest) in the top job.
Michael D. Higgins, the current president was inaugurated for his second term on 11 November 2018, meaning the next presidential election is scheduled to take place on or up to 60 days before 11 November 2025.
Well, of the two government parties, Fine Gael is the one with the most prep done so far.
Party leader and Tánaiste Simon Harris asked the Fine Gael executive council to consider the presidential contest, such as procedures, at its meeting in early April. Following that meeting a sub-committee was formed and it is to come back with recommendations.
The next meeting is due to be held of 6 May, so there may be more news then on how they plan to select the party’s candidate.
Harris told The Journal that Fine Gael plans to run its own candidate, separate to Fianna Fáil, stating that he also thinks a competition within the party for the nomination would be “healthy”.
“All the names I’ve seen of people mentioned and mooted are good, decent people that could make a fine contribution, but I am the party leader, and I’m going to reserve my judgment for the time being,” he said.
When asked if there would be a party consensus or whether Fine Gael would hold hustings for the nomination, the party leader said he would be surprised if only one candidate to put their name forward.
While he said last month that it was “relatively early days yet”, he mentioned that “there’s lots of different names being mentioned and mooted”.
Frances Fitzgerald, Mairéad McGuinness and Seán Kelly are all likely to seek the the party’s nomination. While former Minister Heather Humphreys ruled out a run when she left office, her name has creeped back into speculation of late, so she’s not to be completely ruled out.
Humphreys told Northern Sound recently that she will give a presidential bid “every consideration” and will make a final decision in May.
Sources state the party is still “assessing”, adding that it is “way too early” to be discussing possible names. It is understood that if more than one person interested in the nomination, then there will be a process set out for a selection process.
But there are names out there.
Obviously, former Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fáil Bertie Ahern has long had his name attached to a potential bid for the Áras but over recent months he has been keeping coy when asked about it.
In July, Ahern told media that he hasn’t ruled out a potential run, but whether Fianna Fáil would be happy to have him as their candidate remains to be seen.
Last year, Ahern rejoined Fianna Fáil more than 10 years after he quit the party following the findings of the Mahon Tribunal.
MEP Barry Andrews has also been mentioned as a possibility, with another MEP, Cynthia Ní Mhurchú, also namechecked in discussions.
Labour leader Ivana Bacik wrote to leaders of the Social Democrats and the Green Party earlier this year suggesting they should unite one candidate. Initial discussions, which included People Before Profit and Sinn Féin were held, but no agreement was reached.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald has said she is open to the idea but most within the party believe it is more likely the party will field its own candidate, though there are concerns about being seen to lose another national vote.
A disastrous result could bruise the party further as it attempts to regroup and rebuild after the last general election.
Jarlath Burns, President of the GAA, is one name in the mix as a possible Sinn Féin candidate but it would mean cutting his GAA presidency short.
There has been chatter about McDonald herself or Michelle O’Neill running but both women have ruled it out, stating that they are focused on the jobs they have.
Has there been any further movement on a possible Left candidate?
One source said there hasn’t been anything since the initial meeting.
“There’s still no definite,” they said, though they agreed the names coming to the fore appear to be Independent senator Frances Black and Independent Galway TD Catherine Connolly.
Senator Frances Black has been vocal in media over the last year trying to push the government to enact her Occupied Territories Bill in response to Israel’s brutal assault on Gaza.
The Independent politician and singer is a popular figure, having first entered politics in 2016 upon her election to the Seanad.
Connolly, who was the Leas Ceann Comhairle in the last Dáil, is well respected across all parties and is often spoken of as being a fair-minded politician, which could work in her favour.
One person who might fit the brief is MEP Luke ‘Ming’ Flanagan who confirmed this week that running is something he might consider.
Speaking to Shannonside FM recently, Flanagan said that he believes he has a chance of winning the election, with his appeal across a number of different constituencies as a three-time independent MEP for Midlands North West.
Flanagan said: “In the European elections, I ran in a constituency with 15 counties, I topped the poll.
“I took transfers from everywhere in what would be considered, I suppose, potentially a socially conservative constituency. I would also be able to pick up votes in Dublin and in the Ireland South part of the country,” he added.
When one TD on the left was asked if parties could unite behind Flanagan, they agreed that he might do well with people on the west coast, but they weren’t sure if he’d be someone everyone could get behind.
They said left-wing parties are going to have to start moving on the candidacy “pretty quickly”, stating the election will “be on us before we realise”.
In terms of how a Left candidate would be funded, they said no discussions on that issue had taken place, but one would assume it would be a D’Hondt system, whereby those with the most seats and bigger share of the vote, would pay more into the campaign’s fund, they said.
Aontú leader Peadar Tóibín has said his party intends to run a candidate in the presidential election. The Meath West TD said his party believes there is a “significant section” of the population who do not feel represented by the “political establishment” and he believes his party can fill that void.
Businessman Peter Casey has declared he wants to run again. He got 23% of the vote in the presidential election in 2018 but he didn’t fare too great in the European Elections where he got 3% of the vote in the Midlands-North-West constituency.
Other names that have been mentioned include Independent Senator Michael McDowell, Irish Times columnist Fintan O’Toole, who said he would not rule out a bid but that he would not do it alone.
Former TD and co-founder of the Social Democrats Róisín Shortall topped a newspaper poll before Christmas as the favourite to be Ireland’s next President at 32%.
Shortall told the Mail on Sunday at the time that she ‘hasn’t decided’ what her next move will be, so watch this space.
Of course, there’s also MMA fighter Conor McGregor, who hasn’t been shy about his ambitions to be the next president.
The chances for his candidacy are slim though as candidates need the backing of 20 members of the Oireachtas or four councils to get on the ballot paper.
This gives political parties a major advantage, given the numbers.
Before the summer is out, we’re sure to have a bit more clarity on who is serious about throwing their hat in the ring.
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It should be you have to be over 100 and accompanied by a parent!!!!!
@BAAB: that’s brilliant!
Fantastic law. Ireland is to greedy for the tax.
Why can we just make it illegal to buy cigarettes for anyone born after 2019?
@Nomad: Thats a very good idea
@Nomad: anyone born after 2001 would be better … but I’m liking this Hawaii idea
@Nomad: Ban the sale of alcohol to anyone under 120
@Simon Carroll: now that is just stupid.
Will just make the price on the black market go up
@shellakybooky: it will, but you can’t make public health policy based on wether the black market is going to do something. As a smoker, I’d love a ban in Ireland.
@Joe Travers: Would you turn to the black market?
The problem with them on the black market is what’s in them and not the loss of revenue.
Because the world has SUCH a great record of successfully banning drugs. It NEVER leads to more dangerous products, it NEVER funnels enormous amounts of money into organised crime, it NEVER leads to insane laws where millions of people are imprisoned for non-violent crimes at a cost of billions, it NEVER leads to a situation where the police get ever more militant leading to situations like where teams that wouldn’t look out of place storming Osama’s hideout storm houses in the suburbs guns blazing just to prevent the risk that some low level dealer might flush his stash.
Yep, this is a great idea that has never failed before.
@The Bob: Yeah, you’re right. We tried stuff in a different situation before and it didn’t work. We should just do nothing.
This is cigarettes we’re talking about – yes, very addictive but you’re never going to get people chasing them the same way as other drugs. The effect of tobacco just isn’t enough crack to warrant it. There would be some residual black market, but the main effect would be to make it entirely socially unacceptable to smoke and make it very difficult for young people to start smoking in the first place.
The government would never introduce such a law. They make great money out of other people’s addiction.
@Tony Murphy: They lose that money as the healthcare costs outweigh the tax intake.
@Robert Conneely: That is very unlikely to be true. In the UK conservative estimates put the monatary revenue gain to the excheuqer at £6billion. https://fullfact.org/economy/does-smoking-cost-much-it-makes-treasury/
@Robert Conneely: 6million people die each year worldwide from smoking related diseases. 8.2 million die from cancer which 1.7 million is from lung cancer. Basically my point is the whole health care for smokers costing a fortune story is total bullshit and an excuse to keep rising the price of tobacco. I realise they’re bad for you but this whole costing the state a fortune I don’t believe in the slightest.
@Hardly Normal: valid point. Many smokers gave health insurance despite massive tariffs , those who are suing at high rates are most likely from poorer countries with zero access to poor medical care and smoking unregulated tobacco added to all this one has to factor in the cost of care of those in the West ( reducing by the year) that’s offset by those who continue to smoke and do not require full time care from the damage of smoking and have paid massive taxes on their smoking habit
Brilliant ..and rightly so .. the smoking and indeed e-smoking industries creaming billions off people around the globe. The costs to fix and repair people is then mind boggling. This fella has seen it all first hand and knows the consequences for many. Sure it would be tough for some to get off the oul schmokes ..i was a smoker myself for years .. tried and tried eventually did it .. one of the best things i ever did ..suck the life right out of you just like the ciggie companies do
Smoking is bad for your health that’s a fact, I don’t smoke now, but I did once and if people that are adults want to smoke, it’s their own business.
It’s reasonable to provide factual information on the health risks and let them decide for themselves. Just because someone is a doctor, it doesn’t automatically make their opinion the basis for legislation or something that should be accepted in place of personal freedom.
It’s a slippery slope of the removal of the personal rights to eat or drink to excess, skateboard, skydive take part in extreme sport etc.
We all have one shot a life and it if we can’t even have the freedom to make stupid decisions that ultimately effect ourselves, what’s the point and where does the nanny state mentality end?
@David Van-Standen: plenty of dangerous things are illegal or controlled. Driving without a seat belt, walking on motorways, driving without a license, carrying knives, guns, crack cocaine, codeine, morphine, the list goes on. Sometimes laws do need to be made to protect people from themselves, unfortunately having all the information doesn’t always work.
@Niamh Ní Caiside: your freedom to behave recklessly in respect of your own life can impose a huge societal cost e.g rehabilitation of those injured in car accident.
Can you still bring them in to Hawaii from other states or countries?
@GClare: you will be mugged for 20 Major
Brillant idea. We should follow suit. Wean ourselves off cigs and tax over 5 years. In long run we, and particularly children would benefit. Bring it on.
I like to have a choice. I think you got that with abortion. Same here.
Could we get that here?
Once again people cheer as the state steps in to tell us what we can and cannot put into our own bodies….all this is going to do is drive tobacco sales underground and fuel crime. Raising taxes on tobacco products and pumping it into education is always unpopular but it is the best option to stop people smoking not some ridiculous ban.
Can We do the same with Alcohol or is it only one poisonous habit that we can attack?
@Simon Carroll: If you have a problem with either, you can quit and not wait for someone to hold your hand.
Not a bad way around the costly legal issues of an outright ban. It would still take years to wash out the illegal element, but it puts the writing on the wall for the tobacco industry.
Taxation is not a sincere method.
Nor is all the shaming about heatlhcare cost, everybody that doesnt die suddenly carries end of life costs, that is everyone eventually.
I need a fag after reading that
@Colm Walsh: I’d say you’re a howl on a night out!
If we’re going to ban anything it should be alcohol first it’s the most dangerous widely used drug, it costs us a lot more money to our public services the cigarettes
Iv also never heard of any smoking 20 John Player Blue and then acting like an idiot causing fights, killing people, been generally antisocial or been a danger in our roads
Smokers stink of death.
Lol, never happen.
That could do the job our revenue people won’t do:
“Stop the illegal selling of cigarettes and tobacco on Moore Street Dublin”
Millions of revenue lost every week.
The law is an Ass:
Increase the legal age by 1 year every year might be a way to eventually ban it here. Would also cushion the blow of lost revenue. Would take a long time to see the rewards though.
@Stephen Woods: excellent idea my good man. Take a bow!
I’ve been suggesting something similar for years, mine not so drastic but to raise the age by 1 year every year and to issue ‘smokers cards’ to those over the age of 18 who currently smoke and only allow those people to purchase cigarettes until everyone who is allowed smoke is eventually dead in 70 or so years.
@Niamh Ní Caiside: what??? Smokers cards and slowly eradicate the smokers? Please never get involved in politics or any other important decision making process
@Niamh Ní Caiside: sorry Niamh another guy called Steve got a comment in before you about raising the age by one year every year. You didn’t tell him by any chance, did you?
As a smoker It can’t come quick enough here. Horrible habit and strain on the system. But the taxes say it all and the Goverment would never do it. Pity As It should be done.
With all that’s going on in the whole world these days , this is news , give me a break you clowns
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