LAST UPDATE | 29 Apr

CANADA’S FEDERAL ELECTION on Monday had it all: a stunning political comeback for the Liberal party and a mandate from voters for a full term for Prime Minister Mark Carney; shocking incumbency seat losses, not least the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre; and devastation for the left wing New Democratic Party, which haemorrhaged seats and whose leader, Jagmeet Singh, in an emotional address, announced he is stepping down.

All of this against the backdrop of a big bad wolf just south of the border, threatening Canada’s very existence – and perhaps unintentionally, galvanising Canadian pride and solidarity to historic levels.

At the time of writing, it is unclear if the Liberals will win a majority – the magic number to achieve a majority is 172 seats in the House of Commons, and the party is currently projected to take 168. Several seats are still too close to call, however, and Elections Canada paused counting at around 3 am ET. If the remaining seats fall in their favour, the Liberals may manage a majority government yet.

Yet a conversation about whether the Liberals might win a majority in this election would have been unthinkable just a couple of months ago.

Five political parties won seats in Canada’s federal parliament following the 2021 election: the Liberals who formed a minority government with Justin Trudeau as Prime Minister; the Conservative party in opposition; and three smaller parties, the New Democratic Party which entered into a confidence and supply agreement with the Liberals; the Bloc Québécois; and the Greens.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney dances to Canadian band Down With Webster as they play live at campaign headquarters after the Liberal Party won the Canadian election in Ottawa. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

As recently as January, the Liberal party appeared to be in disarray. Its tenuous confidence and supply agreement with the NDP collapsed last September, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh declaring the Liberals “too weak, too selfish and too beholden to corporate interests” to stand up to the Conservative Party.

Handover of power

After a period of sustained pressure from within the party, the deeply unpopular Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation after almost a decade as Liberal party leader. By then, the party was trailing its nearest rival in the polls, the Conservative Party, by a whopping 24 points.

The Conservatives, led by bombastic populist Pierre Poilievre, seemed a shoo-in to take the majority of seats in the next federal election and form a majority government. Polls pointed to the Conservatives as having an overwhelming chance of winning a large parliamentary majority if an election had been held in February of this year.

FILE - Mark Carney, Leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, embraces Prime Minister Justin Trudeau after being announced the winner at the Liberal Leadership Event. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

Then came along new Liberal leader Mark Carney, political novice and economic rockstar, at exactly the moment the US launched an unprecedented trade war against its closest neighbour and ally – and the entire political landscape changed almost instantaneously. Carney gambled on calling a snap election after only nine days in office and saw his party not only shoot back into contention, but take the lead ahead of the Conservatives with only days left to the election, as the Canadian public reacted to US aggression and threats of annexation and sought a steady pair of hands to weather the storm.

Canadians of course, do not vote directly for their Prime Minister; as in Ireland, each riding votes for its member of parliament. You would be forgiven, however, for thinking this election was a two-horse race between Carney for the Liberals and Poilievre for the Conservatives – the other parties and leaders simply faded into the background throughout much of the campaign. Both parties picked up seats from the NDP, and the Liberals in particular devoured seats from the Bloc. While the Conservatives did make some gains, especially in Ontario, it was a devastating night for the party leader, Poilievre, who failed to hold on to his own seat.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre speaks to supporters with his wife Anaida Poilievre at his campaign headquarters on election night. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

So how did this remarkable reversal of fortune for the two parties happen? While Poilievre is a career politician, Carney has never held elected office. He is known for his economic credentials, having served as Governor of the Bank of Canada throughout the 2008 financial crash and Governor of the Bank of England in the period spanning Brexit.

He positioned himself throughout the campaign as uniquely qualified to guide Canada through this period of trade war crisis. Poilievre, on the other hand, struggled to update his anti-Trudeau messaging in response to the changed circumstances.

The Trump threat

The goal of Trump’s threats may have been to frighten Canada into submission. In fact, it did the opposite – the past few weeks have seen an outpouring of Canadian national solidarity, reflected in the recent “Elbows Up Canada!” rallies. Poilievre’s Trump-style “Canada First” rhetoric increasingly fell flat in comparison.

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The gap between the parties did narrow in the run-up to Monday’s election; however, the loss of Poilievre’s own seat represents an extraordinary sea change from the certainty that he would be the next Prime Minister only a couple of months ago.

Carney has been praised for his tough stance in the face of tariff threats from Donald Trump. Alamy Stock Photo Alamy Stock Photo

From Ireland’s perspective, Carney has spoken warmly of his Irish heritage (three of his grandparents emigrated to Canada from Ireland). He is even reported to have played a role in guiding the Irish government to an alternative solution to deal with Ireland’s banking debt back in 2012, potentially saving billions of euros for the Irish state.

What next for Canada?

A new cabinet will be formed, and the House will be recalled. Once parliament is back in session, the Liberals’ plan of action will be announced, with trade and the economy expected to be top of the agenda. With the next Trump tariff looming in early May, a meeting between Trump and Carney to discuss the future of the US/Canada trade relationship will likely be on the cards.

While Trump repeated his exhortations for Canada to become the 51st US state on social media on the morning of the election, it is anyone’s guess how he will react to the new government.

Carney has promised to diversify Canada’s trading relationships and travelled to Europe just three days after taking office in March to cement the Canadian/European bond. As Ireland and the EU look outwards in planning their own response to US aggression and unpredictability, they will undoubtedly hope to find an ongoing ally in Canada.

It remains to be seen if the Liberals will manage to achieve a majority government – if not, they will need to look elsewhere for support to push their agenda ahead. This may present an opportunity for the Bloc party – a silver lining amid its loss of seats in Québec. A minority government may also mean that the life span of this government may be quite short, and we could see Canadians heading back to the polls in the next 12-18 months.

Will this kind of instability inhibit Carney from negotiating with Trump from a place of strength? It is possible that this election result may deliver more uncertainty in an already uncertain time in Canada.

Dr Seána Glennon is an Irish lawyer and a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Ottawa Faculty of Law.