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AS THE SMOKE clears from Sunday’s US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, retrospective analysis of the timeline of events suggest Donald Trump knew he was never going to negotiate with Iran.
Called Operation Midnight Hammer, the carefully choreographed bombing of critical sites in Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan was carried out by a fleet of B-2 bombers using 14 “bunker buster” missiles and decoy planes in an effort to destroy what Israel maintains is a nefarious Iranian nuclear programme.
In the hours after the mission, Trump claimed it a ”a spectacular military success”.
Less than two days prior to “one of the most complex and historic military operations of all time”, in the words of White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, Trump communicated that he would make a decision on whether to strike Iran “within the next two weeks”, leaving the door open for negotiations.
In 2018, during his first term, Trump pulled out of a deal brokered by Barack Obama along with Iran, the UK, France, Russia, China, and Germany in which Iran promised to cap uranium enrichment at 3.67% for 15 years, far below the weapons-grade level of 90%.
The New York Times analysed this statement with respect to the timeline of events leading up to US intervention in Iran, suggesting Washington engages in a deliberate exercise of political and military misdirection.
The US published its annual threat assessment, stating: “We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorised the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.”
This was reaffirmed by US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard who told a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing that month that nuclear weaponisation by Iran was not impending.
Trump said this week that Gabbard’s testimony before the committee was “false”, after which she has backtracked on her March statement, attacking “dishonest media” and claiming Iran could soon build a nuclear weapon “if they decide to”.
US and Iranian officials held “constructive” talks in Oman on the subject of limiting Iran’s uranium enrichment and moves towards developing nuclear weapons after Trump sent a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei.
In the letter, Trump gave Iran sixty days to show “substantial progress” on the issue.
To keep the ultimatum viable, Trump asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to strike before then to allow for negotiations to achieve a peaceful resolution.
Despite Trump’s negotiation window facilitating active talks on limiting Iranian nuclear capabilities, Netanyahu told a group of US lawmakers that he would undertake military action against Iran without seeking American approval, according to CNN.
Netanyahu has for over three decades in politics tried to enlist the help of the US in dismantling Iran’s nuclear programme, constantly warning of weaponisation in the very near future, but to no avail.
Less than a week out from the commencement of Israel’s strikes against Iran, Trump and his national security advisers huddled at Camp David where military plans were drawn up.
Sources told ABC News that among the items on the agenda in those discussions was Israel’s plan to proactively strike upon the passing of Trump’s 60-day deadline.
This claim has legitimacy, considering reports of daily contact between Trump and Netanyahu prior to Israel’s pre-emptive attack on Iran’s military sites and army officials.
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a statement commenting on Iran’s uranium enrichment efforts.
IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi said: “Unless and until Iran assists the Agency in resolving the outstanding safeguards issues, the agency will not be in a position to provide assurance that Iran’s nuclear programme is exclusively peaceful.”
One day after the lapse of Trump’s 60-day window, Israel began airstrikes against Iran, triggering what have become daily missile exchanges between both sides.
The initial attacks killed top Iranian military figures, including Ali Shamkhani, a key nuclear negotiator and close aide to Iran’s leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
Three days after fighting began, Trump left the G7 Summit in Canada under the guise of working to resolve the conflict.
That same day, he shirked any appearance of confidentiality about his country’s military plans in Iran, posting to Truth Social: “Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”
In the week leading up to the American strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites, Trump remained ambivalent about whether he would intervene in the conflict, telling reporters “I may do it. I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I’m going to do”.
He faced opposition to the move, even from the most ardent of the Maga movement, including the outspoken Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor-Greene and conservative TV host Tucker Carlson.
Trump authorised a fleet of US B-2 bombers to drop 14 bunker busters on Iranian nuclear sites in the early hours of the morning local time.
US defence secretary Pete Hegseth said “took months and weeks of positioning and preparation”, implying that the US was always fully intent on assisting Israel is dismantling Iran’s nuclear capabilities if called upon.
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God only knows……this looner could change his mind during an ‘ ad’ break. Sometimes, I think ol’Joe Biden was more aware of what was going on than this ‘ juggernaut of peace ‘
@Bertie: to HELL? ……. yep, go & be quick
@Mary Linton: don’t feed the trolls
Seems to be a lack of evidence and intelligence.
There have been claims that Iran were weeks away from having viable bombs for more than a decade.
USA gave Iran plenty of indications that a strike could happen, since only USA actually has those bunker busters that would be needed.
Could say they gave Iran all the time needed to actually move material away, which would be a quite poor way to Signal attack plans.
No reputable monitors have detected the sort of radiation changes that should follow this sort of strike on that sort of facility.
Also, it was Trump that scuppered the last deal, that did actually have Iran at the table.
@ben wu: Well, the IAEA said they had concerns about the acceleration of uranium enrichment at 60% and its stockpiling. They said Iran was the only non nuclear weapon holder that had uranium at these levels. These levels are far, far above what is needed for civilian nuclear energy production. Iran may have moved some or all of their uranium. You can be sure the Israelis are on it. There are satellite photos of trucks at the entrances to the mountain site, but it could be they were only moving earth to seal its entrances. I’ve no idea either way.
As regards the lack of radiation, who knows? The bombs were designed to implode the facility. It might have been sufficiently sealed.
I’m sure we’ll learn lots more in the coming days and weeks.
@honey badger: The IAEA Director General said on Friday:
‘The IAEA has consistently underlined, as stated in its General Conference resolution, that armed attacks on nuclear facilities should never take place, and could result in radioactive releases with grave consequences within and beyond the boundaries of the State which has been attacked … Military escalation threatens lives and delays indispensable work towards a diplomatic solution for the long-term assurance that Iran does not acquire a nuclear weapon.’
@honey badger: Also, can it be right that Israel is not subject to IAEA inspections because it’s not a signatory to the NPT?
@honey badger: I can only answer with a ‘I don’t know’ to some of those points.
The only country with those type of bunker busters, making public statements like did, days before a strike is just bad strategy. It may turn out that those trucks were just sealing it further, but against that sort of firepower it seems unlikely. They are like 30,000lb bombs, and it wasn’t just one of them dropped.
They aren’t exactly designed to ‘seal’ a target, so the lack of detectable radiation increase afterwards seems like it was moved when threat was made.
I’m fine with reducing their capabilities, but I have an issue with statements hours after, that everything about the mission was successful, since there doesn’t seem to be any supporting proof.
@ben wu: I think the really worrying thing is the more general point that international law no longer applies. Trump, Putin, Netanyahu all ignore it. It seems that we are returning to a medieval world in which any semblance of law is replaced by sheer might. Tomorrow’s NATO meeting will be interesting: will Trump’s isolationist policy be put on hold?
The 2 weeks ultimatum that Trump gave to Iran means 2 days.
….because he is a puppet of Israel. And oil, always oil.
When did Trump Really decide to Bomb Iran??
Probably halfway through his Happy Meal, While Watching his Life Coaches Larry, Curley & Mo….Then spilling his CocaCola all over his crotch and having one of his Trademark Tantrums!!!!
The answer to that question is:
When he was told to bomb them by
Netanyahu, but not too worry because the US tax payers won’t have a problem paying the cost of it all. The 30 cruise missiles launched from a US submarine in the Attack on Iran’s Nuclear site’s cost mere
60 million USD alone at 2 million each and that’s not counting the cost of bombers and munitions used in that part of the operation – now that Iran has related against US bases in the region this evening who knows what the final cost both financially and in terms of human lives will be in the end no doubt in the trillions
So much for the so called president of peace.
@Chaotic State: where do you guys get all this data, people are only interested in who’s bombing who not all this rhetoric and copying and pasting, we can get all this on CNN and AI use your own logic.
Decide? That silly question comes across as If he had a choice, that strike was planned about 14 years ago but Obama and bidan wouldn’t back the isrealis on it, when Trump pulled out nethenyaaaahoos chair for him weeks ago that told the isrealis yeah we can do what we want now.
US bases in Qatar and Iraq just hit.
Donald: how did you get to work today?
Lackey no 42: I ran.
Donald: That’s it, bomb them.
Took a chance into hell and back, this will comeback to bite him, dragons teeth are hard to shake off.
@Phillip Smyth: they left the dragons teeth they will be back.
For everyone arguing over US politics, surely this whole situation shows you just how little it really matters who happens to be in the big chair. US foreign policy remains the same as it’s always been, Israel’s obedient lapdog.
Peddle and cranks don’t care and particularly this loose cannon no brain loose and inept.
When he was humiliated in front of the world at his military birthday parade.
have your say