LAST UPDATE | 15 Jul

EMPLOYMENT MINISTER PETER Burke has said it is “very difficult to assess” what impact tariffs from the US would have on job security in Ireland, and that the extent of the losses are still unknown.

It comes as his Fine Gael party leader and Tánaiste Simon Harris is to bring a memo to cabinet today stating that US President Donald Trump’s threatened 30% tariff on goods from the EU could accelerate potential job losses in Ireland.

Despite the increase in the US’ threatened tariff rate, the memo is still in contrast to the government’s previous position, which was that most existing jobs would not be at risk as a result of a 10% tariff, but the creation of new positions in the market would slow.

Asked by The Journal today to clarify the position of the Irish government in respect of tariffs’ impact on employment, Burke said that that was still unknown.

He said: “It is very difficult to assess. I think the truth is, we do not know what the shape of the [US-EU trade] deal is yet. We have heard the 30% figure, but we don’t know what sectors may get different carve outs.”

Burke highlighted that while Ireland enjoys a 65% market share in sectors like aeroplane leasing, and exports vasts amounts of pharmaceutical products to countries like the US, Washington is still investigating whether tariffs can legally be placed on those items.

Under US law, there are restrictions on what trade barriers can be placed on goods classified as essential, such as medicine and fuel. Burke said, as the White House continues to explore its options in that regard, the impact in Ireland is still unknown.

“It’s important to note that we need to see a line of sight to make a proper assessment,” Burke said. “We have not, quite honestly, dealt with the tariffs we are seeing now in, arguably, 100 years. That makes [impact assessment] modelling very difficult.”

Harris is due to tell his cabinet colleagues this morning a blanket 30% tariff on European goods imported into the US will accelerate potential job cuts.

Tánaiste Simon Harris speaking to reporters yesterday. Alamy Alamy

The Tánaiste told reporters this morning that a 30% rate would impact the trading relationship between the US and the EU and lead to “a situation where, inevitably, you’d be seeing job losses”.

Asked whether Burke was critical of that analysis, he told The Journal: “It’s not that I’m critical of it. It’s just that we don’t know the evidence yet because we have to see what tariffs are there. 

“If it was 30% across the board, that would have a very significant effect on the Irish economy and, indeed, the European economy,” he added.

Irish ministers are today set to agree on continuing the government’s support for the EU’s negotiations with the US, after European trade boss Maroš Šefčovič said a 30% blanket tariff would make trade between the two markers virtually impossible.

The EU has warned of a firm response on €72bn worth of American goods. The US’ latest announcement of an increased blanket tariff of 30% on goods from the EU if there is no deal by 1 August could result in a devastating trade war.

Harris will today tell ministers that current projections suggest a serious negative impact on the Irish economic performance. Government has previously outlined that the Irish economy is would remain strong under a 10% tariff, albeit with slower growth expected.

European trade ministers condemned the 30% tariff proposal and supported further dialogue between the EU and the US.

Trade Commissioner Šefčovič said yesterday that both negotiating teams were moving towards finalising a deal last week, and agreed when asked if he felt let down that the US President had threatened to place a 30% tariff on the EU.

He said that, despite the threat from Trump, American negotiators are pleased to continue negotiations:

“We are showing an enormous patience and enormous creativity to find solutions, but if it reaches 30+%, quite simply, the trading as we know it will not continue, with a huge negative effect on both sides of the Atlantic.”

Government has already conceded that tariffs may have an impact on measures included in Budget 2026. Business representative group Ibec today has said that the taxes pose long-term threats to competitiveness in certain sectors.

It has said that employer PRSI, trade supports for business owners and commercial energy costs must be addressed in Budget 2026 to avoid tax-related disincentives for job creation, particularly in the context of the tariff’s potential impacts.