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Rui Vieira/PA Wire

Here's why the election will probably be on February 25

Regardless of whether the Finance Bill is put through this week, it’s likely we’re going to the polls within 32 days.

THE GENERAL ELECTION will now almost certainly take place on February 25, following the Green Party’s withdrawal from government yesterday and the focus shifting to the passage of the Finance Bill in the Dáil this week.

Brian Lenihan will this afternoon host a meeting of the finance spokespersons from all of the Dáil’s opposition parties – which now includes the Greens, who will likely send Eamon Ryan as their de facto finance chief for the coming weeks.

That meeting will try to outline a timetable for pushing the Finance Bill through the Dáil and Seanad before the end of the coming week; Labour and Fine Gael, who are both planning motions of no confidence in the Government, have said they will put their motions on ice if they are given assurances that the Bill can be passed before next weekend.

If the Bill makes it that far, and is passed on Friday night or Saturday morning, it’s assumed that Brian Cowen would then proceed to Áras an Úachtaráin on Saturday afternoon and seek the dissolution of the Dáil, thereby triggering the general election.

By the provisions of the Constitution, that election must take place no later than 30 days of the Dáil being dissolved – but the country’s Electoral Acts say that the election must be held within 18 and 25 days of the previous Dáil being disbanded.

That window, however, does not include Sundays or Bank Holidays – so, if the Dáil is dissolved this Saturday, January 29, the election must be held at some point between Saturday February 19 and Monday February 28.

In recent history, elections have been held in Ireland on Fridays (the 2007 election was a notable exception, with polls opened on a Thursday – a move which sparked ire among many, including students living away from home, who could not vote) – so it’s virtually certain, in that regard, that the election would be held on February 25.

If , however, Fianna Fáil’s minority government insists the Finance Bill cannot be passed this week, Labour and Fine Gael will exercise the nuclear option – and vote no confidence in the government and the Taoiseach respectively. Presumably, now on the opposition benches, the Green Party would vote alongside them, meaning the immediate collapse of the government.

In that case, Cowen would seek the dissolution of the Dáil on Wednesday night or Thursday morning; assuming the latter, the 25th non-Sunday after then is… Friday, February 25.

The other alternative scenarios that could unfold are that the opposition parties agree to allow the Finance Bill be passed in the early days of next week – which would probably push voting back to Friday, March 4.

Otherwise, if Cowen happened to seek the dissolution of the Dáil on Wednesday night (or, indeed, beforehand), the 25-day window closes on Thursday February 24. In that case, the election probably gets brought forward to February 18.

In summary, if we assume that the election will take place on a Friday, then any dissolution between this Thursday (January 27) and the Friday of next week (February 4) means February 25 is the likely day.

Chalk it down.

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    Mute Al
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 4:16 PM

    I Love Dublin.

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    Mute Old Gabby Johnson
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 6:30 PM

    Its a kip.

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    Mute Integra-Ted
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 6:33 PM

    Don’t let the door hit you on the way out of Dublin so!

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    Mute john
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 4:22 PM

    Stunningly lyrical piece..very entertaining…

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    Mute Cosmo Kramer
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 4:14 PM

    While Dublin has some brilliant People living in it and is very pretty it has turned into a dump.. The City Centre is full of junkies, drunks and gangs of young lads running riot. Beatings and stabbings are nearly a nightly occurrence and there’s not a Guard in sight.. Open drug dealings and drug taking can be seen all over the city centre..

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    Mute Al
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 4:18 PM

    Slight exaggeration. You always get one….

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    Mute Harry Sheils
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 4:58 PM

    Got goosebumps listening to that. Fantastic.

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    Mute Vicko Aguilar
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 5:49 PM

    Beautiful! I ❤️ Dublin

    28
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    Mute Johnny
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 5:08 PM

    Dublin in a Cultural Jewel of Europe….not many cities have produced the amount Dublin has…U2 Bram Stoker Yeats Shaw Lynott Geldoff O’Hara and on and on the list goes….it took me a while but I love the city…not perfect but us Irish are far from perfect…

    About the controversy in Limerick City of Culture 2014…why feel the need to mention over and over again it when it was completely over amplified across the entire media infrastructure at the time…it was the 1st significant investment in culture in a City whose reputation had been destroyed by media…and it was the first city to expose political interference in Culture and how it is funded!!!

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    Mute joeythelad
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 4:51 PM

    I have been to a lot of European cities and I can tell you , you seldom seen junkies injecting openly on the streets ,mothers and fathers going around with kids in prams strung out , dirt and dog pooh and chewing gum littering the streets ,muggings, pickpockets, shoplifting , loads of stabbings and the frequent murder and theres much more I can add ,but that’s what Dublin is and that’s what I call a dump

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    Mute danielplainview
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 6:22 PM

    You’re what I call a dope

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    Mute Ana Nonymous
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 8:32 PM

    Have to agree with what you have to say beautiful piece though!

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    Mute Diarmaid O'Fionnachta
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    Nov 4th 2015, 1:30 AM

    Joey you;d wanna go to Rome. Very sketchy, much more so than Dublin!

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    Mute Sean @114
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 9:27 PM

    Like every city it has it’s problems but the pros far outway the cons……. The view across Dublin bay from Howth head, the Phoenix Park, shielded by beautiful mountains, great night life, welcoming people, culturally diverse, Croke Park, Guinness Brewery, great museums and gallerys, fantastic georgian areas, beautiful canals etc etc. Does it have drug and crime problems? Absolutely. It needs to be dealt with urgently by those elected to do so. Is everyone full of top o the mornin to you and cead mile failte? No the natives are by and large welcoming and witty but like any city we have our troubles and strifes. Overall though it’s a smashing city, with great characters, lots of variety and is a pretty hip place to live. I’m proud to tell people that I am Irish and I am from Dublin.

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    Mute joeythelad
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 7:02 PM

    If people cant see what I say when they go into town they must be blind

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    Mute Qwerty
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 8:42 PM

    Remove beggers, bucket shakers and buskers. Then it would be much nicer.

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    Mute Catherine Mc
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 9:24 PM

    This it wouldn’t be Dublin !

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    Mute Qwerty
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    Nov 3rd 2015, 9:33 PM

    It would still be Dublin. Just without the harassment on the streets. It’s important to get rid of buskers and street performers too. It’s just begging via proxy. People should be forced to walk on the left on Grafton Street. Very annoying when you just need to get from A to B and Grafton Street is an obstacle course. Ban chewing gum all around the country too.

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    Mute Rathminder
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    Nov 4th 2015, 7:54 AM

    The audio was brilliant. Did the video need to begin with such dismal city scenes? Dublin is a city of golden light and great beauty as well as grey and dismal streets.

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