Sign in. It’s quick, free and it’s up to you.
An account is an optional way to support the work we do. Find out more.
THE DEPARTMENT OF FINANCE has today published its Irish Stability Programme Update (SPU) for April.
The SPU sets out the official macro-economic and fiscal forecasts for Ireland until 2016 and today’s update was the first since last December’s Budget.
Minister for Finance Michael Noonan submitted the SPU to the Joint Oireachtas Committee on Finance, Public Expenditure and Reform this evening, ahead of its submission to the European Commission before the end-of-April deadline.
Speaking today, Noonan said that his department believed that growth would continue “into 2013 with GDP forecast to grow by 1.3 per cent this year, with a return to growth in employment and a fall in unemployment.”
While there has been a modest revision in the headline GDP forecast that was published on Budget day revision incorporates compositional changes to growth. [see image below].
On the plus side domestic demand has been revised up slightly on the back of recent high-frequency data leading to a slightly more positive revision to employment growth in 2013. However, this is offset by a downward revision in the export growth as the global economy remains weak and the impact of the patent cliff is weighing on pharma exports.
Noonan said that it was “clear from today’s figures that we are making progress in restoring order to the public finances and returning the economy to growth”, but added that the real challenged “remains getting people back to work across the country”
(MerrionStreet.ie/YouTube)
Reaction
Fianna Fáil’s finance spokesperson Michael McGrath said that that SPU “again confirmed” government’s lack of ambition on the jobs front, while Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty said that the latest update was further proof that austerity was not working, saying:
The government has had to drastically reduce the number of jobs it predicted it would create by 2015 from 69,000 to 52,000. It has also had to reduce its growth forecast to 2015 from 8.2 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The predicted unemployment rate for 2015 has been increased from 11.7 per cent to 12.8 per cent. All of this is because the current policy of austerity is failing and the government needs to come to terms with that fact.
To embed this post, copy the code below on your site
Question: If the architect of European austerity comes out and says it won’t work, the paper the policy is based on is shown to be incorrect due to a flawed excel spreadsheet formula, and the worlds top economists consider continuing it to be madness, what does the Irish government do?
Answer: What its told by Germany.
The present government are skating on ice and are so caught up with their own importance that they don’t have a clue what’s really happening on an internationally. It’s pump politics but on a national level
They can’t see what’s happening in their own towns and cities Or they don’t want to see.
Hitler sent out children and old men to die in the battle for Berlin in what was clearly a lost cause but he didn’t want to see either.
And what’s the alternative? I’m not saying I agree with what the government is doing (should be widening tax bands and making everyone earning contribute while slashing long term benefits) but to be truly against something you have to advocate for something else.
So, what is the €13 billion alternative?
One alternative would be to stop telling citizens that we have no alternative.
And maybe try and explain to citizens why the most vulnerable in Irish society must shoulder a larger burden than the most fortunate.
That’s not an actual alternative, just a statement confirming the existence of an alternative. Could you kindly divulge even one such alternative?
The larger portion of the population are obviously going to be targeted. A 5% increase in tax on 90% will yield a greater return then a 90% tax increase on the 5%. I’m not saying it’s fair, it just is.
Write off. Gambling is not win win, it’s win or lose. And in 2008 after a long wining streak they lost. Tough luck, we can’t pay for everything!
That’s a valid point rob, just one question though.. sticking to the same train of thought, say you had a good run of luck, got cocky and dropped a large bet with your bookie and lost. Then you say you want to write off the debt, what do you think would happen? We can’t just write off this debt, generally a statement like that is followed by a reference to Iceland so to get it out of the way.. yes Iceland wrote off (defaulted on) their debt.. no no one will ever do business with them again. Should we write off our debt we will loose a large ammount of foreign invesment both in our economy and in industry. Can Ireland afford to loose employers like Intel Google or Diagio?
Putting it in Dublin terms..no mun no fun.
Without jobs and with high taxes we cannot buy the capitalists goods. Therefore they go out of business, wealth is not produced and this will continue to happen until the banks feel it is so detrimental to their existance that they start to ease up and start making credit available. The problem today is that our economies are all interlinked and we have a globalised labour force. Money leaves here and goes to sweat shops in China and Bangladesh where life and labour is cheap. Imagine what would happen to all these opportunistic companies if say war broke out in China…or North Korea. We might want to fix our own economy but work will contbinue to go to the BRIC countries.
Whats this about an Excel formula?
Absolutely agree. Fact remains we spend 13bn more than we receive.
So like anything you reduce spending and increase revenue. This notion that we should borrow more, people spend more….is fine – problem is we’re finding it very difficult as it is to borrow the 13bn…
As regards the SF position – with the exception of the deep thinking required to say ‘burn the bond holders’ ‘reduce bankers pay’. ’100% tax over 100k’ I haven’t heard an alternative that even remotely stacks up…
I stopped believing its about money when Nama and Anglo are refusing massive cash offers. It’s about power and look at that photo noonan is barking. The idea you can create jobs by killing off all entrepreneurs is madness. Say what you like about Sean Quinn but there hasn’t been a job in the area since he was attacked not one total devastation
That we have fallen for the household budget argument when examining the financial woes of a nation is a testament to the spinning skills of govt and our own cluelessness about such things.
Who in their right mind would starve themselves to pay off their mortgage in say 5 years rather than plan to spread it over a timeframe to allow a decent standard of living also.
We obey our German master and have not explored any possibility other than what they have told us we must do.
To all those looking for a viable alternative: i’d say do a quick bit of research into how much natural gas was given away to shell up in mayo. Then minister of natural resources and energy eamonn ryan estimated it at 8billiob (probably quite a conservative estimate).
Not to mention other fields being discovered off the west coast. The total value of which has been estimated up to 420 billion.
Thats 420,000,000,000 euro’s or in laymans terms the jackpot.
http://www.dublins2s.com/content/great-oil-and-gas-giveaway
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corrib_gas_project
Should probably clarify that i think it would be repugnant to sell off our natural gas resources to keep european bankers in the good life.. but just saying there are many viable alternatives to austerity
Pearse is the most competent and straight talking Finance spokesperson in the country. He’s the man that should be negotiating on our behalf. Vincent is just afraid that the status quo might be stirred if that happened….
He is an Opportunistic windbag that leaps on the nearest populist bandwagon.
Which part of the SPU suggests that the programme isn’t working?
I’d like to agree but noonan was similar before entering government.
Who says Pearse is anything like that fool noonan, noonan enda and gang did lie it doesn’t mean Pearse or Mary Lou lie like them weasels. I for one don’t think they are.
Austerity is working fine for those who can afford it. Its just those of us that are struggling that know its not
1790: Mayer Amschel Rothschild states,
“Let me issue and control a nation’s money and I care not who writes the laws.” he then went on to set up the central bank of America. His other famous quote is also very telling for when they decide to choke countries of that flow of money, ” the best time to buy is when there is blood on the streets, even if it is your own”.
This is where this greedy financial system took hold and unless it is changed at the core history will continue to repeat it’s self every 3/5 generations.
Everything else is field dressing.
Gosh, he lived along time. The American Central Bank (The Federal Reserve) was set up in 1913.
He was talking about the bank of England and European currencies. Educate yourself before commenting.
They are the Cenral Bank of America????????
Austerity is not working,nah Enda said it is i believe him.He’s a super intelligent leader,we should be honoured he left the classman all those years ago.Where would we be without this economic genius?
Enda is a class act . Going to find it hard to find someone who is a “man” like him. Try the circus first !
Sarcasm Michael?
A small bit
Austerity is working ,it’s working for the rich
That’s a lie. Inflation works for the rich, which is what you get when you spend more than you take in.
SPENDING IS THE PROBLEM, NOT REVENUE
Can ye not just give Pearse Doherty the password to publish as an author on the Journal? May as well cut out the middle man as he clearly has a direct line.
Don’t like the truth Vincent. All you want to hear is the spin and b.s. fg and labour feed you.
It would make a nice counterbalance to Aaron McKennas articles every saturday morning pushing the fine gael talking point of the week.
I’m on your side re: Aaron McKenna.
Back to An Phoblacht with you, Leslie.
With you Vincent. Opponents say austerity isn’t working. Anyone with half a brain can see it is, which is why the real investors in Ireland Inc. want us to succeed – Apple, Google, Facebook etc. Add this to the success of our Agriculture sector and who knows we might beat the naysayers..
Yeh. Where did you get the impression im a shinner. No chance mr shaw. Feeling the pressure are we? That your beloved party are finally outed as Merkel s lapdog’s.
Pearse Doherty knows something about economics as does Stephen Donnelly. Michael bilderberg Noonan is the bankers man, the poster boy for the rich Rothschild cabal who are imposing a federal Europe through circus.
Tim Geitner and his Goldman Sachs buddies who tell Obama what to do made sure the irish taxpayer took the full hit. FG are europhile banking puppets. We actually want to hear the truth rather than Terri Prone controlled spin from FG.
Well said – these thugs will continue with Austerity – as it gives the Rich the money they crave – like all of it – and fat overfed a##lickers like Nnonnan need to be got rid of – but it is waht are sometimes called the ” Illuminati ” that are running the show – or as max Keiser calls them – the New illuminati – even Obama is a ” go-for ”.
We never see – or rarely so– see the people who really govern us .
Jesus Patrice you really made me laugh there thanks for making my night.
austerity has no chance in this country because it requires structural reform and it has to start from the top down
Sure lets go back to true blue shirt tactics Vincent and re introduce section 31 and gag the nasty shinners completely.
How is google etc an investor in Ireland with a tax rate of 0.14%. That ain’t an investor that a leech.
Listen to rte if you don’t like the opposition.
@ Vincent. It not so long ago that you ridiculed Pearse and Sinn Fein over their plans to use pension reserves as a work stimulus fund. Now that wee rabbit jaws has nicked this idea and re hashed it as a government plan u seem very quiet on subject.
Vincent / shaw/ dilco. All that can be said to you is .hahahahaha . Your lover government is once again being proven to be incompetent or they just really like stealing Irish peoples money.
@Vincent and @Patrice: Are ye guys bondholders or what?? Explain to all of us shinners how austerity is working!
Noonan is also a bondholder . Why wont he release the names of the people that we are paying back billions to.. Hmmmmmmm ?
Look lads austerity IS working Mick Noonan says so the Government say so, department of finance say so, their over paid advisors say so. I mean they were right about not having a property bubble, soft landing, banks being adequately funded, not getting a bailout I’m sure people can to this list.
No sh1t…..
The facts speak for themselves.
Perpetual debt and inflation for generations is clearly a better option
Inflation lessens the value of the debt over time, making it easier to repay…
Take a look at this folks and make up your minds,
http://youtu.be/uWQ6LXhKmaE
Jim Corr??!! Are you serious?!
Why not !
We don’t hear much from Bono these days! (do we)
Jimbo is the voice of the people setting an example and leading the way,
Jimbo is the voice of a certain people. .the lunatics of society
Hilary, you do realise that lad is a headcase?
And point being!
That current head cases and lunatics leading the country at present are any better?
Your right he might be a head case, bit is he ant worse or better than the head cases that are running this country?
True! ;-)
Only the ECB can do anything about austerity by printing euros. The Irish and other governments have not chosen austerity they don’t have any other options. They have insufficient funds from taxation and no ability to borrow. Anyone who says otherwise is lying to you for political reasons or if not genuinely stupid.
You say Opponents in the headline could you clarify.
It said opponents. They meant shinners..
Does mr Rothschild still live in Waterford? Large estate with beautiful gardens. I think he is a bigger contributed to the Irish economy than most people posting here. Hopefully he is still alive and well as he was elderly when I last saw him.
Enda/Noonan/Howlan= Machiavelli “Prince” politics but we all know what happen then…a revolt!!! Change is happening to fast and the system (society) cannot keep up! The processers (leaders) must be change to ensured the safety of Ireland’s people with new innovative approaches in ensuring society as a whole is looked after before the Euro! That is what we voted for… not austerity, legacy debt, emigration and so forth… enough is enough! The picture perfect Ireland in the EU’s eyes are smiling while Irish families are full of tears!!! Sad number of years ahead with these cronies in leadership!!!
K
have your say