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YOUR Fiscal Compact questions: Answers from European Policy Centre

We asked TheJournal.ie’s users to put forward their questions about what the Fiscal Compact actually MEANS and we would get straightforward answers. Here they are.

LAST WEEK, THEJOURNAL.IE issued a callout to you, our readers and fellow citizens and voters, on the question of the Fiscal Compact referendum.

We wanted to know what YOU wanted to know about the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union (official title).

First, we picked the most commonly-asked questions you submitted on points that you didn’t understand or wanted clarified in the wording of the treaty.

Then we posed those questions to two independent bodies here (the Referendum Commission) and in the EU (the European Policy Centre), as well as to a representative each of the ‘No’ and the ‘Yes’ side.

Click here for answers from all sides.

HERE: Fabian Zuleeg, the chief economist from the European Policy Centre (an independent, not-for-profit think tank), answers your questions:

What is NEW in this treaty for Ireland?

There are a number of new elements in this treaty, including that future support of countries will depend on the ratification of the treaty.  In general terms, this is an attempt to create commitment at the national level to maintain strict public finance control, for example requiring countries to put some of the European provisions into national law.

Can Ireland still access the EFSF fund regardless of what way the vote goes?

Any country will be able to access funds which have been agreed as part of previous packages of support; these will be unaffected by the treaty. However, any new funding will require ratification.

A figure of €11 billion has been suggested as Ireland’s maximum input into the ESM. Does the ESM have the power to increase this figure if required?

The ESM is established by a separate treaty (and is thus unaffected by the ratification of the stability treaty), which specifies the maximum amount of the ESM, as well as the ESM contribution key, i.e. what percentage is contributed by each country. To alter these would require a new treaty.

(A clarification: When asked about clauses in Article 10 of the current treaty which allow the board of governors to seek extra capacity, the EPC added that yes, this could happen, but it would require a unanimous decision, ie, each country has a veto.)

If we do require funding can the ESM set additional austerity measures as part of the agreement to provide funding to Ireland?

A new support programme would need to be negotiated between the country requiring the support and the providers of the funding, including ESM and the IMF. There would be conditions attached to such a programme, i.e. funding would be conditional on a reform programme.

If we vote Yes in this referendum, is the treaty being added to our constitution?

I am unable to answer this question as this is related to the constitutional law of Ireland.

If we ratify the treaty and then the wording of the treaty is changed afterwards, will the same amendments apply to us?

The wording of the treaty cannot be changed retrospectively. A country is bound by what it has signed so the text cannot be altered. There might be a possibility that a protocol is added at a later stage (for example, stating the commitment of Europe’s leaders to growth) but this would have a very different legal status.

The Taoiseach Enda Kenny said after the informal summit in Brussels this week that there can still be a growth deal among EU countries, completely separate to the fiscal compact. Is this possible?

It is possible and even likely that there will be some form of growth pact at European level. However, at this stage, it is unclear what this will contain and what legal status it will have. But it is highly unlikely that Germany would agree to such a growth programme without commitment to the stability treaty.

What interest rate will the ESM charge? Is it ‘at cost’ as some in the ‘Yes’ campaign have claimed?

‘The pricing for the loan shall cover funding costs plus a margin determined by the Board of Governors.’ (from the OECD)

The treaty refers to “Structural Deficit”, but it doesn’t define the term.  Some economists are worried that the term is undefined.  Could you please define “structural deficit” and provide a definitive explanation as to how exactly it is measured.

A structural deficit is relatively easy to define but how to measure it is a bit trickier.

Here is a standard definition: ‘A budget deficit that results from a fundamental imbalance in government receipts and expenditures, as opposed to one based on one-off or short-term factors.’

Different international organisation (EU Commission, IMF, OECD) estimate structural deficits on the basis of long term trends and cyclical movement in a country’s economy, but there can be differences between these estimates.

The treaty says: “In the event of significant observed deviations from the medium-term objective or the adjustment path towards it, a correction mechanism shall be triggered automatically. The mechanism shall include the obligation of the Contracting Party concerned to implement measures to correct the deviations over a defined period of time.”

Who defines what a ‘significant deviation’ is; what are the “corrective measures”; who is to define the period of time?

The medium term objective is defined in the treaty – in essence, each country should have a structural deficit which is no greater than 0.5% of GDP. The adjustment path, i.e. the timing, is proposed by the Commission. If a country deviates from this path, there is no need for a vote in the Council (which was the case in the past) but it automatically triggers a procedure where the country needs to show how it will get back to the agreed path or face further sanctions.

Corrective measures are any which can affect the structural deficit, i.e. cuts in expenditure or increases in taxes. The specific nature of the corrective measures is not going to be dictated by the EU but they will have to be sufficient to get back to the agreed adjustment path.

Is there provision for any circumstance that any individual or group of countries to opt out of this treaty in the future?

No, opting out at a future point is not an option. Countries decide now whether they are in or out, but once signed this becomes part of the country’s European obligation.

Answers from the Referendum Commission>

Answers from Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty for the ‘No’ side>

Answers from Fine Gael’s Simon Coveney for the ‘Yes’ side>

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    Mute Frantz Harband
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    Dec 1st 2018, 8:12 AM

    Well done .keep it up!!!!

    286
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    Mute
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    Dec 1st 2018, 11:21 AM

    @Frantz Harband: while babies and children die in Yemen let’s protest at not being able to drive our 2 litre diesel cars to the local pub.

    Or am I wrong?

    41
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    Mute Richard Cronin
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    Dec 1st 2018, 11:29 AM

    @: so all protests must be reported on how important they are?

    Go back to bed

    49
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    Mute Frantz Harband
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    Dec 1st 2018, 3:22 PM

    @neilo: only time will tell….

    4
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    Mute Michael Maher
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    Dec 1st 2018, 7:18 PM

    @: Off to Yemen with you so .

    3
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    Mute Michael Maher
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    Dec 1st 2018, 7:30 PM

    @neilo: With out farmers and diesel cars this dictated to little country would stop.
    The Climate change hoax is big business for the likes of Germany who want to sell their climate change electrical gadgets to fools.
    Our country side is been destroyed with useless wind turbines cables and substations.
    Nuclear power is needed in Ireland not bull….

    8
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    Mute David Stapleton
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    Dec 2nd 2018, 9:22 AM

    Yes, you are wrong.

    1
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    Mute tommytukamomo
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    Dec 1st 2018, 8:53 AM

    In Ireland the people fear the government.
    In France the government fears the people.
    Speaks volumes for the so called Fighting Irish.

    338
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    Mute Milk The Drones
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    Dec 1st 2018, 9:15 AM

    @tommytukamomo:
    That’s right, and in turn Fine Gael themselves are:
    Afraid of the banks.
    Afraid of the insurance cartels.
    Afraid of the Eurocrats.
    Afraid of the IMF
    Afraid of the Vulture funds and big business.
    When mice are in charge everyone gets bullied.

    228
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    Mute Sean Conway
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    Dec 1st 2018, 9:45 AM

    @tommytukamomo: People here are afraìd of change. even the courts are backing FG on the broadband issue. they all go to the same schools

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    Mute Paddington C.
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    Dec 1st 2018, 10:16 AM

    @tommytukamomo: do you really fear the government? I don’t.

    14
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    Mute tommytukamomo
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    Dec 1st 2018, 10:28 AM

    @Paddington C.:, I most certainly do not, nor would I trust one of them as far as I could throw one.

    32
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    Mute Paddington C.
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    Dec 1st 2018, 12:29 PM

    @tommytukamomo: but do you fear them?

    3
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    Mute Dan public
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    Dec 1st 2018, 4:08 PM

    @tommytukamomo: fighting irish me arse. We are great while sitting on bar stools talking about what we would do and should do but come Monday morning it’s business as usual

    14
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    Mute Jazz Buckler
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    Dec 2nd 2018, 7:28 AM

    @Milk The Drones: ..and wealthy landlords… and rich farmers

    1
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    Mute Jazz Buckler
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    Dec 2nd 2018, 7:31 AM

    @Dan public: except the over 65’s.
    The only ones with the balls (and time probably) to protest. Govts are afraid of them

    2
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    Mute Mick Barnier
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    Dec 1st 2018, 10:31 AM

    It’s all fine and well tackling climate change but when extra taxes are foisted on the same people who’ve carried the can for the banking gambling scam and expecting a quiet compliance is pure elite and out of touch which describes Macron perfectly.

    75
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    Mute DaisyMay
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    Dec 1st 2018, 8:07 AM

    Hard to take a protest seriously in France. National pastime.

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    Mute Greg Blake
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    Dec 1st 2018, 8:38 AM

    @DaisyMay: the Irish yellow vest movement used to involve queuing up for greasy breakfast roll and twenty blue. Times change.

    99
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    Mute Hardly Normal
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    Dec 1st 2018, 11:49 AM

    @Greg Blake: now the suit wearing snowflakes que for a hazelnut choca mocha bullshit and avacdo toast.

    55
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    Mute lelookcoco
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    Dec 1st 2018, 8:34 AM

    Just back from a week in France and had constant delays driving through large towns. They are angry with the government but end up just inconveniencing people going to work, supermarkets, school. The movement is already losing support there and is being hijacked by more extreme elements looking for an excuse to cause trouble. Act 3 as they call it is planned for Paris today

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    Mute JimmyMc
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    Dec 1st 2018, 8:50 AM
    59
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    Mute Lennon
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    Dec 1st 2018, 9:35 AM

    @lelookcoco: That’s not at all true! I live in France and EVERYONE in my village supports this! If you had paid attention you would of seen many people will yellow vests on the dash of their cars so they can be seen by others while driving. This is a symbol of support! People here aren’t mad and blaming others for protesting, they are mad and blaming the government for their endless propaganda, taxes, and Royal lifestyle while the overwhelming majority of us barely get by! I own a home and a business here and I pay more than my fair share of tax yet get very little from it! There’s no bus or train service here and it’s 40 mins by car to the closest major city! This is reality! Not the lies the French government is trying to tell!

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    Mute Sarah
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    Dec 1st 2018, 11:01 AM

    @Lennon: agreed. it’s just wishful thinking on the parts of people who hope this will go away and the middle classes will just go back to quietly suffering and paying taxes..that most important of all…you see it here all the time with their own government spin machine where what they are reporting seems to be largely contrasted with popular opinion and they’re just hoping that by presenting their side of the narrative it will all just go away. water charge protests or take back the city are perfect examples of this….

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    Mute
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    Dec 1st 2018, 11:23 AM

    @JimmyMc: it’s easy not to like climate change and economics but what’s the answer ?

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    Mute
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    Dec 1st 2018, 11:24 AM

    @Lennon: symbol or support or forced to have one just to get to work in the morning ?

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    Mute lelookcoco
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    Dec 1st 2018, 11:38 AM

    @JimmyMc: Your article from Le Figaro dates from 22nd Nov just four days after the first demonstrations and before the more serious disturbances in Paris last Saturday (and again today). Here’s something a bit more recent and as I said support is falling.
    https://www.sudouest.fr/2018/11/27/gilets-jaunes-quelle-suite-pour-le-mouvement-5603342-710.php

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    Mute lelookcoco
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    Dec 1st 2018, 11:46 AM

    @Lennon: I also live in France and pay my taxes. I also know that everyone as you claim does not support the movement. You say if I paid attention I’d seen people displaying their safety vests on the dashboard. I absolutely am paying attention and count about one car in three where I live and many of those doing so to avoid being hassled by protestors at roundabouts and toll booths. As I said I have no objection to people being angry at government policy and taxation but why hassle those of us who want to get on with our daily lives.

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    Mute Fran Scanlon
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    Dec 1st 2018, 5:20 PM

    @lelookcoco: like the minister elements in the water protests here? Bahahaha.

    1
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    Mute Mick Madden
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    Dec 1st 2018, 8:53 AM

    People are sick and tired of Macron and his wife Merkel throwing away Europe. Rise up all

    154
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    Mute Dominic Leleu
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    Dec 1st 2018, 9:17 AM

    Allez les jaunes ?

    29
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    Mute lelookcoco
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    Dec 1st 2018, 11:55 AM

    @Dominic Leleu: Who are Jill et Joan anyway??!!

    4
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    Mute Geoff Murphy
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    Dec 1st 2018, 1:37 PM

    An explainer? How condescending…..people are waking up all over the world…..the elite calls this populism while throwing in some racial undertones however they can’t say this about the french…..

    37
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    Mute Peter Byrne
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    Dec 1st 2018, 9:48 AM

    7.5 cent rise in the price of diesel not exactly going to bankrupt anyone, every country is going to have to face climate change anyway

    23
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    Mute Mick Barnier
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    Dec 1st 2018, 10:34 AM

    @Peter Byrne: except that French price has already increased this year. For years the price in France was much cheaper than here for instance but not any more. This is the straw that’s broken the camels back.

    46
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    Mute Sarah
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    Dec 1st 2018, 11:03 AM

    @Peter Byrne: look around at what’s happening here the exact same s*** is happening to the squeezed middle in France… if you seriously think that this is all about fuel prices then you’re kidding yourself this is a symptom of a much larger disease…

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    Mute Sarah
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    Dec 1st 2018, 3:22 PM

    @neilo: you don’t think they exist do you?

    3
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    Mute Allan Mathew
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    Dec 1st 2018, 6:38 PM

    In Ireland we too are been ripped off with fuel charges.
    Oil hit US$80 a barrel recently and Irish pump prices rose instantly.
    Oil is trading below the US$60 Mark and there has been ZERO drop at Irish pumps…….

    21
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    Mute kevin mc cormack
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    Dec 1st 2018, 6:24 PM

    The French aren’t afraid to let their feelings be known when their not happy with their governments decisions and I say good on them

    19
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    Mute Martin Lintzgy
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    Dec 1st 2018, 9:35 AM

    Most are there for a good time, some are there to loot, and some are there to riot.

    14
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    Mute Hans Vos
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    Dec 1st 2018, 12:24 PM

    Protesting is fine but starting already with wearing balaclava’s is pointing out that they want mayhem.

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    Mute John Moylan
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    Dec 1st 2018, 3:54 PM

    @Hans Vos: I’d go, and wear a balaclava too. Nothing to do with mayhem. Protection fromantic targeting.

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    Mute Angry_Man41
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    Dec 1st 2018, 4:35 PM

    Crush the rebels

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    Mute Thomas McGuire
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    Dec 1st 2018, 4:59 PM
    1
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